Revista de Análisis Económico (RAE) es una publicación de carácter internacional y bilingüe del Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Economía y Negocios de la Universidad Alberto Hurtado. La revista, que se publica dos veces por año, en abril y octubre, tiene por objetivo estimular la producción y el intercambio intelectual de estudios teóricos y empíricos en materias económicas.
Lee aquí el último número RAE
EDITORES
- Carlos J. Ponce, Universidad Alberto Hurtado
ASISTENTE EDITORIAL
- Carolina Bermeo M., Universidad Alberto Hurtado
ASSOCIATE EDITORS / EDITORES ASOCIADOS
- Joaquín Coleff, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Argentina
- Constantino Hevia, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Argentina
- Claudia Martínez, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
- Consuelo Silva, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
EDITORIAL BOARD / CONSEJO EDITORIAL
- Claudio Agostini, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Chile
- James Albrecht, Georgetown University, USA
- Guillermo Calvo, Columbia University, USA
- Augusto Castillo, Universidad Alberto Hurtado, Chile
- Sebastián Edwards, University of California, USA
- Eduardo Engel, Universidad de Chile
- Alvaro José Riascos, Universidad de los Andes, Colombia
- Susan Vroman, Georgetown University, USA
Últimos artículos RAE
Factores Asociados a la Migración Neta Cero entre México y Estados Unidos, 2005-2015
Por: David Alejandro Calvillo Preciado, Universidad de Monterrey; Jaime Lara Lara, Universidad de Monterrey; Arnoldo Martínez Elizondo, Universidad de Monterrey; Eliseo Samuel Pequeño Morán, Universidad de Monterrey; y Victor Manuel Velarde Villasana, Universidad de Monterrey
En este trabajo se examinan factores asociados a la caída del flujo neto migratorio entre México y los Estados Unidos a niveles cercanos a cero en el período 2005-2015. Para ello usamos un modelo gravitacional de Poisson de pseudomáxima verosimilitud, estimando la migración de estado a estado de México a Estados Unidos con datos de la Encuesta sobre Migración en la Frontera Norte de México. Entre los resultados destaca que el cambio con mayor asociación cuantitativa a los flujos fue el incremento de la presencia de la patrulla fronteriza y las políticas de deportación a migrantes de larga estancia, que disminuyeron el flujo de emigración e incrementaron el retorno. La caída en la actividad económica de la crisis del 2008 disminuyó el atractivo de las economías de destino, pero también incrementó los incentivos a migrar en el origen. Otros factores como las redes migratorias, la distancia y el incremento poblacional también son significativos en la explicación de los flujos migratorios entre los estados de los dos países..… Leer más.
Fuente: Revista de Análisis Económico, Vol. 40, Nº 2, pp. 3-25 (octubre 2025).
Fiscal Dominance in the Brazilian Economy? Econometric Analysis by the Method of Simulated Moments
Por: Eduardo Campos, EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças (FGV EPGE); y Rubens Cysne, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance (FGV EPGE)
This work investigates the possibility of fiscal dominance in Brazil and analyses the effectiveness of controlling inflation by increasing the basic interest rate. Our analysis considers an empirical model estimated by the Method of Simulated Moments (MSM), which allows us to make stochastic projections for the relevant economic variables and identify their impacts on the debt’s solvency. Estimating macro equations using the method of moments avoids the problem of possible correlation between residuals and explanatory variables. We consider different fiscal scenarios and obtain conditional probabilities of fiscal dominance. Our main conclusion is that –no matter the scenario and in spite of a greater fiscal deterioration– the probability of the Brazilian economy finding itself in a state of fiscal dominance in the post-pandemic years is negligible… Leer más.
Fuente: Revista de Análisis Económico, Vol. 40, Nº 2, pp. 27-53 (octubre 2025).
Asymmetric Effects of a Supply Shock on Inflation Expectations Under Significant Global Volatility: The Cases of Colombia, Chile, and the U.S
Por: Daniel Osorio-Barreto, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana – Universidad Autónoma de Manizales (https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0848-6394); Hernando Ombao, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7020-8091); José Mora-Mora, Sul Ross State University (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5898-4482); y Lya Sierra-Suárez, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8909-8977)
This paper aims to determine the incidence of the supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on inflation expectations in the emerging open economies, Chile and Colombia, and one advanced economy, the U.S.A. We employ a segmented regression based on Generalized Least Squares to capture the incidence of this phenomenon via a supply shock variable dubbed the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), determine a threshold, and compare the relationship between the variables before and after these threshold points. We use monthly data for the 2005:1-2022:12 period. In particular, we make use of survey-based inflation expectations and the GSCPI as main variables, and the Brent oil price, the VIX index as a common measure for global volatility, and the economic growth rate of the United States as controls. The empirical results reveal a positive and statistically significant coefficient for the GSCPI after the threshold, particularly for Colombia and Chile. This indicates that the supply shock has a positive impact on inflation expectations. We also found that the estimated coefficient for Chile is larger than that for Colombia. This difference can be attributed to Chile’s greater economic openness. The estimated coefficient for the U.S. was not statistically significant… Leer más.
Fuente: Revista de Análisis Económico, Vol. 40, Nº 2, pp. 55-72 (octubre 2025).
Evaluating Inflation Uncertainty Indicators: Criteria and Application in a Developing Economy
Por: Luckas Sabioni Lopes, Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora; Wilson Luiz Rotatori Corrêa, Federal University of Juiz de Fora (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5517-6447), y Ana Caroline Santos de Oliveira.
The present study evaluates the performance of a set of indicators in terms of their suitability as an empirical measure of inflation uncertainty in the Brazilian economy from 2003 to 2022. We consider proxies constructed with GARCH and Markov-Switching models, in addition to the dispersion of the market’s inflation expectations, a measure of monetary policy credibility, and the density forecast for future inflation produced by the Brazilian Central Bank. To evaluate these indicators, we propose three criteria, two of them mandatories and one optional: 1) their correlation with inflation and inflation expectations, 2) their impact on macroeconomic indicators, and 3) their countercyclical behavior throughout business cycles, a feature that is most commonly seen in developing countries. The results show that the credibility indicator yields the most satisfactory outcomes, presenting a positive correlation with inflation and its expectations, peaks in recessions,
and impacting the macroeconomic variables in the expected way… Leer más.
Fuente: Revista de Análisis Económico, Vol. 40, Nº 2, pp. 73-99 (octubre 2025).
Fiscal Decentralisation’s Effect on Indonesia Economic Growth
Por: Syawal Zakaria, Universitas Darussallam; Farida Mony, Universitas Darussalam Ambon, Indonesia; Ilham Habibi Zakaria, Universitas Sahid Jakarta, Indonesia; Jusup Sahupala, Universitas Darussalam Ambon, Indonesia; y Junaidi Junaidi, Universitas Muhammadiyah Palopo.
This study tries to assess how fiscal decentralization which measured by income, expenditure, population increase, human development, regional investment, open trade influencing local government GDP. Using panel data covering Indonesia’s districts from 2013 to 2023. Fixed-effect method was used to confirm financial decentralization on economic growth on Indonesian districts. Fiscal decentralized as one of the local government budget sources have a positive and significant effect on region economic growth. Furthermore, local government expenditure has strong correlation to local people human resources development, investment, and open trade. The central and local government should process of shifting the budget and expenditure effectively. As regulator, central government need to offer regulation the transfer system design and surveilance the budget distribution. This study contributes to economic and government literature by investigate the role of fiscal decentralisation on Indonesia’s district economic growth based on economic and social indicatior… Leer más.
Fuente: Revista de Análisis Económico, Vol. 40, Nº 2, pp. 101-119 (octubre 2025).